Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2020
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Little has changed with our assessment of the market fundamentals – we see large surpluses over the next three years. On the ground demand remains weak in the ROW while in China growth looks likely to stabilise after the initial climb higher following the lifting of lockdown restrictions. LME inventories continue to move higher. Meanwhile, smelters continue to pour out metal. Yet the cash LME aluminium price is testing the US$1600/t level at the time of writing.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 20 images and tables including:
- Post-lockdown bounce in economic activity now flatlining
- Property market indicators continue to improve
- Manufacturing fixed asset investment disappoints as infrastructure spending climbs
- Japanese production of flat-rolled products and extrusions
- SHFE-LME arbitrage for Chinese exports of FRPs into Europe.
- Chinese exports of semis to the EU
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- US shipments of extrusions
- Summary of May production, kt
- The suspensions during Q1 are now unwinding, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina market balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since last month, (kt)
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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