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Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2017

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31 March 2017

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2017

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The promise of China output cuts and better short term demand prospects propelled the LME aluminium price to a 2 year high over past month. March will end with the official LME cash price trading well above $1950/t. Since the first trading day of 2017, the aluminium price has gained $253/t, an increase of 15%. Having struggled against most of the other LME base metals for much of 2016, aluminium is currently second only to lead in prices performance on the exchange. In recent months price under-performance has given way to price over-performance. It is certainly true that there have been some tangible positive developments for aluminium, however, we expect the recent prices gains to be trimmed as we move further into 2017.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • China smelter curtailments and restarts
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since February, (kt)
    • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • LME cash price index , Jan 2017 - March 2017
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2010 - 2019
  • Chinese exports of extrusions to Vietnam (HS 7604), Jan 2015 - Feb 2017
  • Trade weighted US$ index and aluminium prices, November 2016 - March 2017
  • US imports of primary aluminium and alloys
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Demand: Image 1
  • China homes sales, starts and completions
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO March 2017.xls

    XLS 520.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2017

    PDF 1.05 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2017

    ZIP 1.23 MB

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