Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2020
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. With market sentiment towards metals falling off a cliff, the 4 March official cash price high of US$1723/t seems a lifetime ago. The narrative out of China continues to indicate that the coronavirus outbreak has been contained. China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on 2 April that production of automobiles and automotive parts has fully resumed. However, the rest of the world continues to struggle to contain the outbreak. Without substantive output cuts, we project a global market in heavy surplus over the next three years with weak average annual LME prices.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 20 images and tables including:
- March rebound in manufacturing but is it sustainable?
- Property starts and sales hit hard by coronavirus lockdown
- Automotive output and sales fall off a cliff
- Fixed asset investment in free fall in early 2020
- North American capacity of aluminium automotive sheet
- Q1 2020 cuts
- Changes since March LTO
- Summary of February production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price crashes
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2019-2022, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since February, (kt)
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Disruptions to production of automotive sheet in Europe
- European capacity of aluminium automotive sheet
What's included
This report contains:
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