Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2021

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Firm physical demand, exaggerated movements of inventories in LME warehouses’ logistical bottlenecks and concerns over future Chinese production, propelled the intra-day LME price to within touching distance of US$2300/t – a level not seen since Q2 2018. While some positive market developments will be transitory, others could become more entrenched over the next few years.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Japan
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • As expected, economic activity moderates in the first two months of the year
  • Surge in generation and grid investment in early 2021
  • Credit tightening will likely lower construction activity in H2
  • Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU 27
  • European billet premia vs ingot premia
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • Summary of February production, kt
  • Global annualised output rates
  • Inner Mongolia smelter cuts
  • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2021, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price, US$/t
  • China alumina imports (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • China’s new alumina capacity, ktpa
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2021

    PDF 1.61 MB