Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2021
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Firm physical demand, exaggerated movements of inventories in LME warehouses’ logistical bottlenecks and concerns over future Chinese production, propelled the intra-day LME price to within touching distance of US$2300/t – a level not seen since Q2 2018. While some positive market developments will be transitory, others could become more entrenched over the next few years.
Table of contents
- China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- As expected, economic activity moderates in the first two months of the year
- Surge in generation and grid investment in early 2021
- Credit tightening will likely lower construction activity in H2
- Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU 27
- European billet premia vs ingot premia
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Summary of February production, kt
- Global annualised output rates
- Inner Mongolia smelter cuts
- China’s smelter capacity increases in 2021, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price, US$/t
- China alumina imports (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- China’s new alumina capacity, ktpa
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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