In 2022 war in Ukraine supercharged already-rampant inflation and China’s covid-zero policy continued to exacerbate a world-wide supply crunch. Price volatility and cost inflation reached record highs. It is premature to assume a return to normality in 2023. The energy crisis will persist, meaning input prices for commodity production and finished goods will stay high. What’s different this year is that we are firmly on the downward limb of the economic cycle as Governments (and investors) respond to the scourge of inflation, while consumers run for cover. The other major difference to last year - China’s emergence from its covid stupor - is perhaps just what the world needs, propping up global growth and ensuring 2023 is the bottom of the cycle. In this report our analysts identify key themes for the year ahead. Links to separate reports for each of the major commodities and commodity groups are provided below.