Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2023
The official LME cash price drifted below the US$2300/t level in March as financial market stress and a less-than-robust bounce back in Chinese economic activity weighed on market sentiment. Despite increasing inflows of metal into LME warehouses, cash to three-month spreads widened to just above US$50/t on 21 March and remain well above US$40/t at the time of writing. At the same time, risk-averse sentiment is indicated by bearish fund positioning across the base metals complex, with gross longs liquidating their bullish exposure and shorts readily adding to their positioning. For most of the month, prices were trading in a narrow US$2230-2290/t range.