Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2023

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The official LME cash price drifted below the US$2300/t level in March as financial market stress and a less-than-robust bounce back in Chinese economic activity weighed on market sentiment. Despite increasing inflows of metal into LME warehouses, cash to three-month spreads widened to just above US$50/t on 21 March and remain well above US$40/t at the time of writing. At the same time, risk-averse sentiment is indicated by bearish fund positioning across the base metals complex, with gross longs liquidating their bullish exposure and shorts readily adding to their positioning. For most of the month, prices were trading in a narrow US$2230-2290/t range.

Table of contents

  • China
    • India
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity returns to expansionary mode
  • Better construction sector activity in early 2023
  • German semis production in contractionary mode
  • US and Canadian extrusion shipments
  • Summary of February production, kt
  • Europe aluminium cuts, kt
  • World ex-China, ktpd
  • Nanshan sold 336 ktpa replacement capacity to Guizhou smelters, ktpa
  • Restarts at Chinese smelters in 2023
  • China monthly aluminium production, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • Alcoa Mineral Lease 1SA map
  • Alcoa Pinjarra Huntly environment assessment
  • Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
  • New commissioning in China in Q1 2023, ktpa
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • India's public investment focused on infrastructure

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2023

    PDF 1.73 MB