Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2023

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Report summary

The official LME cash price drifted below the US$2300/t level in March as financial market stress and a less-than-robust bounce back in Chinese economic activity weighed on market sentiment. Despite increasing inflows of metal into LME warehouses, cash to three-month spreads widened to just above US$50/t on 21 March and remain well above US$40/t at the time of writing. At the same time, risk-averse sentiment is indicated by bearish fund positioning across the base metals complex, with gross longs liquidating their bullish exposure and shorts readily adding to their positioning. For most of the month, prices were trading in a narrow US$2230-2290/t range.

China
Asia ex-China
- India
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

Manufacturing activity returns to expansionary mode
Better construction sector activity in early 2023
German semis production in contractionary mode

US and Canadian extrusion shipments
Summary of February production, kt
Europe aluminium cuts, kt
World ex-China, ktpd
Nanshan sold 336 ktpa replacement capacity to Guizhou smelters, ktpa
Restarts at Chinese smelters in 2023
China monthly aluminium production, kt
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price
Alcoa Mineral Lease 1SA map
Alcoa Pinjarra Huntly environment assessment
Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
New commissioning in China in Q1 2023, ktpa
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
India's public investment focused on infrastructure