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Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2019

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. So far in 2019 we have seen the removal of 2018 price supportive factors – Rusal sanctions, Section 232 and the Alunorte cut. These have been replaced with price depressing events – intensification of the US-China trade war, a sharper than expected slowdown in global economic activity and a jump in the availability of aluminium scrap. Investor sentiment towards the light metal remains negative with LME prices struggling to move above the US$1800/t for any length of time. Yet all the while in the background global market supply-demand fundamentals continue to exhibit tightness.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Automotive activity takes a dive in April
  • Can better performance in the construction sector be maintained?
  • North American domestic shipments of extrusions by sector
  • US imports of can sheet
  • US imports of common alloys
  • Secondary versus primary use of aluminium in the foundry industry
  • North American use of castings per industry.
  • World ex-China output slumps
  • Summary of April production, kt
  • China smelter cuts 2019
  • China smelter capacity plans
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since April, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Indonesia's alumina requirement estimates
  • Malaysia alumina imports
  • Illustrative freight savings
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since April, (kt)
  • China refinery capacity plans
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • EU exports of cars
  • EU imports of aluminium semis from China
  • SHFE/LME import arbitrage for Chinese semis

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2019

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    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2019

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