Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2019
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. So far in 2019 we have seen the removal of 2018 price supportive factors – Rusal sanctions, Section 232 and the Alunorte cut. These have been replaced with price depressing events – intensification of the US-China trade war, a sharper than expected slowdown in global economic activity and a jump in the availability of aluminium scrap. Investor sentiment towards the light metal remains negative with LME prices struggling to move above the US$1800/t for any length of time. Yet all the while in the background global market supply-demand fundamentals continue to exhibit tightness.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Automotive activity takes a dive in April
- Can better performance in the construction sector be maintained?
- North American domestic shipments of extrusions by sector
- US imports of can sheet
- US imports of common alloys
- Secondary versus primary use of aluminium in the foundry industry
- North American use of castings per industry.
- World ex-China output slumps
- Summary of April production, kt
- China smelter cuts 2019
- China smelter capacity plans
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since April, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
- Indonesia's alumina requirement estimates
- Malaysia alumina imports
- Illustrative freight savings
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since April, (kt)
- China refinery capacity plans
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- EU exports of cars
- EU imports of aluminium semis from China
- SHFE/LME import arbitrage for Chinese semis
What's included
This report contains:
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