Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 28 May 2021

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official LME cash price reached a three-year high of US$2565/t on 10 May. Since then it has lost more than US$200/t on rumors that the Chinese government could intervene in the markets to limit the escalating prices of raw materials.

China
Asia ex-China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

PMI's diverge but underlying growth remains positive
Infrastructure investment slowing but still elevated
Sectoral growth

Property market outlook will be determined by the extent of policy tightening
Japanese production of semis
US shipments of flat-rolled products
US imports of flat-rolled products
Summary of April production, kt
Vedanta aluminium production
Allocation of smelters and refineries
Global annualised output rates
Supply cuts estimation due to hydropower shortage
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
China alumina imports (kt)
Press Metal alumina demand
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
Supply increase of Chinese refineries in near term, ktpa
World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)