Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2023

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The LME cash price hit a fresh 2023 low on 23 May, falling to below US$2200/t in intra-day trading. Supply demand fundamentals remain tight but if it wasn't for the slow progress in smelter restarts, the market would be in surplus. We lowered our 2023 global demand growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.7% previously, with risk still skewed to the downside. The most significant downgrade has been to the outlook for China, where economic indicators fail to impress. The near-term outlook for European demand has also deteriorated with news that Germany was in a technical recession in Q1.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity slips
  • State owned enterprises driving fixed asset investment
  • Automotive sales and output growth surges year-on-year in April but from a very low 2022 base
  • Property sales and starts remain weak
  • European manufacturing activity remains weak
  • Lack of existing homes for sale drives recovery in new home sales
  • US and Canadian shipments of rolled products
  • US and Canadian shipments of extrusions
  • Summary of April production, kt
  • World ex-China cuts
  • World ex-China, ktpd
  • Yunnan aluminium capacity, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • EGA’s alumina requirement
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
  • Major suppliers and consumers in China’s third-party alumina market, kt
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Production of rolled and extruded products

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2023

    PDF 1.21 MB