Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2023
The LME cash price hit a fresh 2023 low on 23 May, falling to below US$2200/t in intra-day trading. Supply demand fundamentals remain tight but if it wasn't for the slow progress in smelter restarts, the market would be in surplus. We lowered our 2023 global demand growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.7% previously, with risk still skewed to the downside. The most significant downgrade has been to the outlook for China, where economic indicators fail to impress. The near-term outlook for European demand has also deteriorated with news that Germany was in a technical recession in Q1.