Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2018
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Aluminium prices extended their fall in November amid a rise in risk-off sentiment stemming from persistent bearishness on lingering concerns over the US-China trade dispute. In the short term, the policy and trade affairs will continue to dominate aluminium markets forcing the LME price to be enslaved to broader movements in commodity markets. We expect prices to trade below US$2,000/t over the next month, with any dips towards the US$1,950/t level encouraging bargain hunting.
Table of contents
- China
-
Japan
- Japanese imports of semis
- Europe
-
United States
- Summary of October production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since October, (kt)
-
Alumina Market Developments
- China alumina trade and arbitrage
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since October, (kt)
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- China property sales, starts and completions
- EU exports of cars to major markets
- European consumption and production of automotive sheet
- EU exports of PSS to the US
- Chinese exports of semis to the EU
- Production of flat-rolled products in North America
- US imports of plate, sheet, strip and foil
- Japanese production of semis
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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