Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2019

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Since threatening to break below the US$1700/t support level in late October, the aluminium price has staged something of a recovery through most of November. Our view is that the upturn in prices is almost exclusively risk sentiment driven on the back of the ebb and flow in recent trade negotiations between the US and China. Despite the slightly firmer tone in the LME price fundamentals remain poor, particularly global demand growth which we expect to be flat in 2019.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

  • Leading indicators diverge significantly
  • Surprising rebound in construction in October
  • Still no lift-off for fixed asset investment - all eyes on 2020
  • Indian imports of aluminium scrap
  • US shipments of flat products
  • US automotive sheet capacity
  • Old capacity swap
  • Summary of October production, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since October, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since October, (kt)
  • China refinery cuts in 2019
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • EU exports of semis to the US
  • European automotive sheet capacity
  • European imports of semis from China

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2019

    PDF 1.08 MB