Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2018
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. So far in 2018, the aluminium price has enjoyed a quick burst on the upside and a slow consolidated sell-off, all the while defending the psychological price level at $2000/t. October was no different to this trend. The official cash price hit a month high of $2243/t on 4 October on the surprise news of a complete cessation of output at the Alunorte refinery. The quick agreement to resume operations at the previous 50% of capacity sent prices tumbling again to below key support at $2000/t. Despite positive fundamentals, fears of the impact of the trade dominate market sentiment. It is a case of love the fundamentals but fear the macroeconomic outlook.
Table of contents
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China
- China PMIs weaken in September and October on growing trade tensions and softer export markets
- Japan
- Europe
-
United States
- Summary of September production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since September, (kt)
-
Alumina Market Developments
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- Japanese production of semis
- US imports of plate, sheet, strip and foil
- North American production of extrusions
- Shipments of castings by sector
- Use of primary vs secondary aluminium in casings
- Proportion of smelters that are cash negative at current aluminium prices
- Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth supported by acceleration in projects starts
- Auto output and sales fall further in September
- Starts accelerate ahead of winter season
- Annualised output
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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