Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 October 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. So far in 2018, the aluminium price has enjoyed a quick burst on the upside and a slow consolidated sell-off, all the while defending the psychological price level at $2000/t. October was no different to this trend. The official cash price hit a month high of $2243/t on 4 October on the surprise news of a complete cessation of output at the Alunorte refinery. The quick agreement to resume operations at the previous 50% of capacity sent prices tumbling again to below key support at $2000/t. Despite positive fundamentals, fears of the impact of the trade dominate market sentiment. It is a case of love the fundamentals but fear the macroeconomic outlook.

China
- China PMIs weaken in September and October on growing trade tensions and softer export markets
Japan
Europe
United States
- Summary of September production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since September, (kt)
Alumina Market Developments
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Japanese production of semis
US imports of plate, sheet, strip and foil
North American production of extrusions

Shipments of castings by sector
Use of primary vs secondary aluminium in casings
Proportion of smelters that are cash negative at current aluminium prices
Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth supported by acceleration in projects starts
Auto output and sales fall further in September
Starts accelerate ahead of winter season
Annualised output
Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global alumina production (kt)
Global primary aluminium production (kt)
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)