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Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2021

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29 October 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Sellers were in the ascendency in the second half of October as Chinese coal prices fell. October turned out to be a month of two halves. The LME price raced to a month official cash high of US$3179/t and hit US$3200/t in intra-day trading on 18 October. Since then, the price has pivoted to a downward trajectory, trading between US$2650– 2680/t. At the time of writing, prices had moved tentatively above the US$2700/t level on dip buying. The sharp drop in prices is not unique to aluminium, the entire base metals complex has taken a hit. Just as the run up prices was overdone; we think the sell-off has been excessive. China’s supply woes are not going to go away anytime soon on lower coal prices.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity remains subdued
  • Investment growth in retreat
  • Credit tightening impacting the property market
  • Japanese production of semis
  • Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • Aluminium project lead times
  • Summary of September production, kt
  • China and ROW aluminium production growth
  • China capacity change January-October 2021, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2021

    PDF 1.41 MB