Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2021
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Sellers were in the ascendency in the second half of October as Chinese coal prices fell. October turned out to be a month of two halves. The LME price raced to a month official cash high of US$3179/t and hit US$3200/t in intra-day trading on 18 October. Since then, the price has pivoted to a downward trajectory, trading between US$2650– 2680/t. At the time of writing, prices had moved tentatively above the US$2700/t level on dip buying. The sharp drop in prices is not unique to aluminium, the entire base metals complex has taken a hit. Just as the run up prices was overdone; we think the sell-off has been excessive. China’s supply woes are not going to go away anytime soon on lower coal prices.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 26 images and tables including:
- Manufacturing activity remains subdued
- Investment growth in retreat
- Credit tightening impacting the property market
- Japanese production of semis
- Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
- US shipments of extrusions
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Aluminium project lead times
- Summary of September production, kt
- China and ROW aluminium production growth
- China capacity change January-October 2021, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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