Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2018

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The latest update to our market fundamentals shows a sizable 2018 and 2019 global aluminium deficit. Despite the tight market, aluminium prices have failed to spark to life. Indeed, LME quotes have struggled to move convincingly beyond $2050/t and trading at 22% below the April peak of $2600/t. In this report we explore the divergence between the fundamentals and prices.

Table of contents

  • Cancelled warrants surge as LME stocks dip below 1 Mt
  • China
    • Japanese production of flat rolled products and extrusions
  • India
  • Europe
    • Summary of August production, kt
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since August, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Global PMIs point to slower near-term economic activity
  • Russian primary aluminium finds a new temporary home in Switzerland
  • NBS manufacturing PMI rises unexpectedly in August
  • Automotive output slides in August
  • Fixed asset investment dragged lower by weak infrastructure investment
  • Strong pick up in land sales points to continued expansion in starts
  • India imports of aluminium, VAPs and fabricated products
  • EU imports of major aluminium products from China
  • North American output of flat rolled products
  • North American shipments of can sheet
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • 16 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2018

    PDF 1.37 MB