Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2018
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The latest update to our market fundamentals shows a sizable 2018 and 2019 global aluminium deficit. Despite the tight market, aluminium prices have failed to spark to life. Indeed, LME quotes have struggled to move convincingly beyond $2050/t and trading at 22% below the April peak of $2600/t. In this report we explore the divergence between the fundamentals and prices.
Table of contents
- Cancelled warrants surge as LME stocks dip below 1 Mt
- China
-
Japan
- Japanese production of flat rolled products and extrusions
- India
- Europe
-
United States
- Summary of August production, kt
-
Alumina Market Developments
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since August, (kt)
Tables and charts
This report includes 28 images and tables including:
- Global PMIs point to slower near-term economic activity
- Russian primary aluminium finds a new temporary home in Switzerland
- NBS manufacturing PMI rises unexpectedly in August
- Automotive output slides in August
- Fixed asset investment dragged lower by weak infrastructure investment
- Strong pick up in land sales points to continued expansion in starts
- India imports of aluminium, VAPs and fabricated products
- EU imports of major aluminium products from China
- North American output of flat rolled products
- North American shipments of can sheet
- North American shipments of extrusions
- US imports of plate, sheet, strip and foil
- US primary aluminium production
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since August, (kt)
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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