Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2019

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The global supply/demand balance for primary aluminium is negative by 1 Mt in 2019 but with 66 days of stock available, the market does not feel in short supply, as stocks are still six days higher than the historical average. In this context, we have lowered our near-term LME cash forecast.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • A false dawn for the housing sector?
  • House prices in lower tier cities have continued to climb rapidly
  • As traditional sources of financing have dried up, property developers are turning to pre-sales
  • Automotive output lifted by better orders for new emission standard cars
  • Infrastructure investment improving but from a low base
  • US imports of can sheet
  • US imports of PSS
  • Summary of August production, kt
  • World ex-China output inching higher
  • China smelter cuts, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since August, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price, US$/t
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since August, (kt)
  • Production cuts in Henan
  • Lvliang refineries
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • China exports of semis to the EU
  • European exports of semis to the US

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2019

    PDF 1.13 MB