Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2021
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Acceleration in power related production curbs in China, firm demand growth, falling visible inventories and tight metal availability drove the LME cash price to within touching distance of US$3000/t during the month. Prices are up 46% since the start of 2021, eclipsing gains made by the other base metals with the notable exception of tin, up by 72%. Indeed, aluminium prices have been rallying every month since February. However, the rally in September was notable. The cash price gained 11% since the start of the month at a time when other metals were either flat or marginally lower.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 24 images and tables including:
- Caixin PMI falls below 50 - the first time since April 2020
- Bounce in retail sales fizzling out
- Key indicators of investment slipping from post-Covid bounce
- Evergrande crisis will weigh on the property sector
- Japanese production of semis
- US shipments of extrusions
- US shipments of flat-rolled products
- Summary of August production, kt
- Global annualised output rates
- ROW idle capacity, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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