Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2022
Report summary
Aluminium prices have been under pressure for most of September. A US dollar index at a 20-year high combined with slowing economic activity in China and the rest of the world dragged the official cash price down from close to US$2500/t on 28 August to below US$2100/t a month later. News of a possible change to the LME’s stance on Russian metal sent the LME aluminium price to an intra-day high of just over US$2300/t. At the time of writing, the price had retreated towards US$2200/t after the LME clarified that no decision had been made to launch a discussion paper on the warranting of Russian-origin metal. Nevertheless, we expect the price to remain under pressure from the continued flow of negative economic news.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 29 images and tables including:
- Investment activity growth holds steady
- Manufacturing in contraction mode
- New property starts continue to fall
- Auto sales and output extend gains on government support
- Japan shipments of rolled and extruded products
- German semis output falling fast
- Chinese semis exports to Europe fall on duty re-imposition
- US Shipments of flat rolled products
- Non energy related cuts in ROW and energy related cut at Hawesville
- Energy related cuts in Europe
- Summary of August production, kt
- Russian and Eastern Europe aluminium output (Mt annualised)
- Global monthly output (annualised)
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
- China alumina exports, kt
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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