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Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2022

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30 September 2022

Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2022

Report summary

Aluminium prices have been under pressure for most of September. A US dollar index at a 20-year high combined with slowing economic activity in China and the rest of the world dragged the official cash price down from close to US$2500/t on 28 August to below US$2100/t a month later. News of a possible change to the LME’s stance on Russian metal sent the LME aluminium price to an intra-day high of just over US$2300/t. At the time of writing, the price had retreated towards US$2200/t after the LME clarified that no decision had been made to launch a discussion paper on the warranting of Russian-origin metal. Nevertheless, we expect the price to remain under pressure from the continued flow of negative economic news.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • Investment activity growth holds steady
  • Manufacturing in contraction mode
  • New property starts continue to fall
  • Auto sales and output extend gains on government support
  • Japan shipments of rolled and extruded products
  • German semis output falling fast
  • Chinese semis exports to Europe fall on duty re-imposition
  • US Shipments of flat rolled products
  • Non energy related cuts in ROW and energy related cut at Hawesville
  • Energy related cuts in Europe
  • Summary of August production, kt
  • Russian and Eastern Europe aluminium output (Mt annualised)
  • Global monthly output (annualised)
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
  • China alumina exports, kt
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook September 2022

    PDF 1.22 MB