Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. Heightened risk and volatility will be the key features for aluminium market over the near to medium term. Our base outlook for demand is one of solid growth over the next few years. However, this requires a firm recovery in China post the ending of lockdowns and a limited fallout from the current banking crisis. The increasing exclusion of Russian metal from some world ex-China markets will reshape global aluminium trade flows. On the supply side of the equation we assume restarts of smelting capacity in Europe from 2024 and a gradual increase in Chinese output. Any deviation from this production path will trigger a sustained period of tight market balances, volatile and elevated prices.
Table of contents
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
- Alumina long-term outlook
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
-
Bauxite medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2022
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- India
- Europe
- North America
- United States
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2022-2050
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Middle East
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2050
- Asia
- China
- India
- Vietnam
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
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Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 46 images and tables including:
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2050 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, (92% utilisation) 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Regional seaborne bauxite supply, 2000-2040 CAGR 2000-2021, 2022-2031, 2032-2040
- Global bauxite supply and demand, with projects, Mt (dry)
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2023 $) – Incentive price US$2800
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Base case and low price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Base case, high and low price scenarios
- Base case and high price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2022 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption growth
- Global secondary consumption to grow by 3.3% p.a. to 2050
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2022 vs Q1 2023 (kt)
- Primary consumption to peak in 2028
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Non-residential construction growth set for 1% p.a. decline between 2023 to 2050
- Indian demand set to grow by a healthy 4.3% p.a. between 2023-2050
- Total consumption by end-use sector in Europe
- Total consumption by end-use sector in US
- Available replacement capacity declined while the utilisation rate grew at Chinese smelters, ktpa
- ROW aluminium new supply
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Eight smelters in Xinjiang account for a total of 6.3 Mtpa capacity, ktpa
- Curtailed European aluminium capacity
- Europe aluminium cuts
- China alumina supply and demand cap, 2020-2028
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
- China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable projects, ktpa
What's included
This report contains:
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