Energy Research & Consultancy

Commodity Market Report 27 March 2023

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Report summary

The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. Heightened risk and volatility will be the key features for aluminium market over the near to medium term. Our base outlook for demand is one of solid growth over the next few years. However, this requires a firm recovery in China post the ending of lockdowns and a limited fallout from the current banking crisis. The increasing exclusion of Russian metal from some world ex-China markets will reshape global aluminium trade flows. On the supply side of the equation we assume restarts of smelting capacity in Europe from 2024 and a gradual increase in Chinese output. Any deviation from this production path will trigger a sustained period of tight market balances, volatile and elevated prices.

Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
Alumina long-term outlook
Aluminium medium-term outlook
Alumina medium-term outlook
Bauxite medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2022
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- India
- Europe
- North America
- United States
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2022-2050
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Middle East
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2050
- Asia
- China
- India
- Vietnam
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
Average alumina prices, 1991-2050 and incentive price (US$/t)

Global aluminium balance and prices
Primary aluminium demand and capacity, (92% utilisation) 2010-2050, Mtpa
Stock days of consumption and price
Global supply-demand balance
Stock days and price
Smelter grade alumina balance
Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2050, Mtpa
Global alumina balance and prices
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
Regional seaborne bauxite supply, 2000-2040 CAGR 2000-2021, 2022-2031, 2032-2040
Global bauxite supply and demand, with projects, Mt (dry)
Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
Long term price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2023 $) – Incentive price US$2800
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
Base case and low price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
Base case, high and low price scenarios
Base case and high price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2022 (Mt)
Global primary aluminium consumption growth
Global secondary consumption to grow by 3.3% p.a. to 2050
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2022 vs Q1 2023 (kt)
Primary consumption to peak in 2028
Total consumption by end-use sector
Non-residential construction growth set for 1% p.a. decline between 2023 to 2050
Indian demand set to grow by a healthy 4.3% p.a. between 2023-2050
Total consumption by end-use sector in Europe
Total consumption by end-use sector in US
Available replacement capacity declined while the utilisation rate grew at Chinese smelters, ktpa
ROW aluminium new supply
Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
Eight smelters in Xinjiang account for a total of 6.3 Mtpa capacity, ktpa
Curtailed European aluminium capacity
Europe aluminium cuts
China alumina supply and demand cap, 2020-2028
Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable projects, ktpa