Global cathode and precursor short-term outlook August 2023

July saw global EV sales decline 10%. EV penetration rates remained constant in July as overall automotive sales declined 12%. As expected, cathode consumption followed suit and fell 11% this month. The continuation of historical trends may indicate a strong finish to 2023. Annual supply for cathode material is expected to experience double digit % growth in the short term. With the only exception being LCO. With significant capacity coming online for LFP in China in the next few years, NCM will quickly take a back seat. The need for cheaper and safer batteries plays to LFP’s strengths and makes it the cathode of choice for both EV and stationary storage. Cathode prices fell 10% in August due to the decrease in lithium chemical prices, correlated to lithium spot prices. Precursor that are more dependent on manganese took the brunt of the price reductions this month. We expect marginal improvements in raw material prices and thus our short-term forecast remains relatively unchanged.