Global cathode and precursor short-term outlook August 2024

Global EV sales fell to 1.3 million units in July. China’s plug-in EV sales now account for 49% of the market. European sales fell 5% from July last year and North American sales grew 2%. Raw material prices and margins continue to fall as oversupply plagues the supply chain. We, therefore, once again revise short-term price forecasts of raw materials and acknowledge that corrections are unlikely this year. Cathode and precursor prices were flat in August and currently sit close to all-time lows. Prices are expected to improve minimally between now and 2026. In August, global cathode production increased as producers raised the utilisation rate. Market sentiment is likely to improve amid upcoming seasonal strength in the global EV market in September. For the most common chemistries (LFP, NCM and NCA) we forecast double digit growth in the supply over the next four years.