Over the last 12 months, there has been a fundamental shift in the cobalt market due to surging hydroxide stocks and slowing battery demand. As a result, cobalt prices plunged to historical lows. Near-term oversupply seems inevitable considering the fast-growing MHP supply coming from Indonesia. However, supply-side risks have never been as high as today for cobalt due to elevated geopolitical tensions between nations and growing ESG scrutiny from end consumers. The cobalt market may quickly fall into deficits if recycling is not well utilised and mine projects are not timely sanctioned. To secure stable supply over the coming decade, investment will be required at each stage of the cobalt value chain, from mining to recycling.