Global cobalt strategic planning outlook Q1 2024

2023 was a turbulent year for cobalt. As a result of elevated stocks and lacklustre demand, the annual average benchmark price fell to around US$15/lb, halving the level of 2022. With no quick fix to the oversupplied situation, the price weakness will continue into 2024. The cobalt market will move to a phase of destocking in the next few years as a result of solid production increases and decelerating demand growth. By the mid-2030s, the demand will outstrip supply, with both feedstock and refined capacity falling short of market requirements. Considering the timeframe of at least five years to bring new supply online, a new price cycle will be needed in the late 2020s to incentivise new project development, expansions from existing mining operations and large-scale battery recycling.