Global copper investment horizon outlook - Q4 2023

Mine disruptions over the past few years highlight the challenges producers face in meeting production targets and 2023 has been no exception. Revisions to our mine supply alongside robust demand growth will defer the emergence of a surplus in the metal market by a year. This means copper prices are expected to remain high again in 2024, before coming under pressure over the next couple of years, as output from new projects hits the market and supply growth outstrips that of demand. Beyond 2026, an anticipated shortfall emerges as base case mine supply begins to contract while demand growth remains robust. As prices trade higher in reaction to anticipated deficits, this should provide sufficient confidence to motivate producers to bring on the additional supply that is needed to maintain a reasonable long-term market balance and to meet the demand growth opportunities that lie ahead. Crucially, recyclable copper scrap will need to play a more significant role.