Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2021
Enthusiasm for copper, particularly from macro funds, has seen the price run ahead of its fundamentals on the back of the strong recovery in Chinese demand, and expectations of a green, copper intensive recovery. Although we now anticipate a deficit for 2021, we still expect a period of declining prices on higher mine supply between 2022 and 2024. From 2025, against a backdrop of still steady demand, and as the pace of base case mine supply growth slows, the resultant deficits are expected to lift prices higher. The rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to reactivate shuttered mines and undertake incremental expansions, mine life extensions and develop brownfield and greenfield projects needed to balance the market.