Commodity Market Report
Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2021
Report summary
Enthusiasm for copper, particularly from macro funds, has seen the price run ahead of its fundamentals on the back of the strong recovery in Chinese demand, and expectations of a green, copper intensive recovery. Although we now anticipate a deficit for 2021, we still expect a period of declining prices on higher mine supply between 2022 and 2024. From 2025, against a backdrop of still steady demand, and as the pace of base case mine supply growth slows, the resultant deficits are expected to lift prices higher. The rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to reactivate shuttered mines and undertake incremental expansions, mine life extensions and develop brownfield and greenfield projects needed to balance the market.
Table of contents
- Long Term Prices
- Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
- Scenario analysis
-
Can mine supply rise to the challenge from energy transition’s emerging demand for copper
- Copper’s role in energy transition
- Can primary supply grow fast enough?
- Closing the theoretical shortfall / supply gap
- Supply gap definition and methodology:
- Overview
- Changes since the last quarter
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Latin America
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- ASEAN and India
- Russia & the Caspian
- Rest of world
-
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- China scrap policy
- Global scrap outlook
-
Supply changes
- Mine projects
- Base Case
- Probable
- Possible
- Mine Disruptions
-
Regional mine production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional smelter production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Near-term smelter projects
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional refinery production capability
- Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excluding China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America & Caribbean
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Tables and charts
This report includes 47 images and tables including:
- Price scenarios
- Regional refined copper consumption 2000-2040
- Total copper consumption by property 2000-2040
- Changes in refined copper consumption by region
- Regional refined copper consumption - kt
- China's power generation and total grid investment ( % change year-on-year)
- Total copper consumption increments to 2040 (kt)
- China copper consumption breakdown
- European manufacturing activity showcased strength
- Mexican share of regional refined consumption to rise
- Refined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-40
- Indexed Copper Consumption Growth - 2010-2040
- Total copper consumption by industry sector 2000-2040
- Total copper semis production 2000-2040
- Copper demand growth puts supply elasticity under stress In an AET-2 scenario
- New standards for renewable copper material
- New standards for renewable brass material
- Global copper scrap use as a percentage share of total demand, 2000-2030
- Disruptions summary (copper in concentrate and SxEw cathode)
- Regional copper mine production - kt Cu
- Africa copper mine production - kt Cu
- Asia (excl. China) copper mine production - kt Cu
- Europe copper mine production - kt Cu
- Latin America and the Caribbean copper mine production - kt Cu
- North America copper mine production - kt Cu
- Oceania copper mine production - kt Cu
- Russia and the Caspian copper mine production - kt Cu
- Copper smelter production capability (kt Cu)
- Africa copper smelter production - kt Cu
- Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production - kt Cu
- China copper smelter production - kt Cu
- Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Latin America and the Caribbean copper smelter production - kt Cu
- Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
- Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
- Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
What's included
This report contains:
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