Global copper short-term outlook December 2023

Since hitting a low of US$8,136/t in mid-November, copper prices have maintained an upward trajectory throughout December. The upturn in prices initially emerged following the news of the suspension of operations at Cobre Panama in the second half of November. This was further reinforced by downward revisions to mine supply at Boliden and Anglo American, supportive data out of China and the US, and persistent falls in LME stocks. We maintain our view that the market will remain in a modest deficit this year. Meanwhile, the slower pace of mine supply growth in 2024, coupled with robust demand gains, will delay the emergence of a surplus in the metal market until 2025. Refined metal stocks will now be drawn down in 2024 and prices, will increase, rather than fall as previously predicted. Despite the changes to the supply outlook, we still anticipate above average mine supply growth over the period to 2026.