Commodity Market Report

Global copper short-term outlook February 2020

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27 February 2020

Global copper short-term outlook February 2020

Report summary

The unprecedented challenges posed by the spread of the COVID-19 virus rattled the copper market in February. The copper price has come under significant downward pressure, fuelled by the speculative selloff as investors turned bearish. The crisis is evolving rapidly. Industrial sectors in China have been gradually resuming operations; the estimated loss of working days and disruption to copper demand in February is close to two weeks. We expect a much smaller loss of copper demand in March as production picks up. The concentrate market has been impacted by the reduction in smelter utilisation rates, accelerated by the collapse in demand for sulphuric acid, but also from some smelters rescheduling maintenance.

Table of contents

  • Market developments
    • China
    • Japan and South Korea
    • India and ASEAN
  • Europe
  • USA
  • Latin America
    • China concentrate markets
    • Blister/anode and scrap markets
    • Production News
    • Project development
    • Corporate activity

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • LME cash price and 3-month spread
  • Virus fears drive metals sell off
  • Managed money CFTC positions
  • Managed money LME positions
  • Chinese raw material imports as a share of refined consumption
  • Exchange stocks
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance (kt)
  • Regional manufacturing PMI
  • Production and shipments of copper wire rod and copper semis - kt
  • Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt
  • Concentrate market TCRCs
  • Global copper-in-concentrate stock changes (kt Cu)
  • Daily power generation proxy shows that restarts of industrial sectors are further delayed
  • Countervailing duties on imports under HS code 7408
  • Impact on wire rod trade between India, UAS and the four ASEAN countries
  • Smelters that have announced a scale back in production rates
  • Blister market RC
  • Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper refined consumption (kt)
  • Global copper mine production (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)
  • Global copper smelter production (kt)
  • Global copper refinery production (kt)
  • Copper stocks
  • Copper prices and premia
  • Copper supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook data tables February 2020.xls

    XLS 303.50 KB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook February 2020

    ZIP 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Global copper short-term outlook February 2020

    ZIP 1.14 MB

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