Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

Heightened risk and volatility will be key features for copper over the near to medium term. Our base case outlook for demand is one of solid growth over the next few years. However, this will necessitate a firm recovery in China now that pandemic-related restrictions have been lifted and a limited fallout from the current banking crisis. Strong supply growth over the next couple of years, is set to weigh on prices over the period 2023 to 2025. Copper’s prospects over the long term remain bright and will intensify on the back of decarbonisation as well as the forces of industrialisation, urbanisation and population growth. To meet the future demand requirements, the next generation of copper mines needs to be incentivised now if the market is to deliver sufficient supply to close the theoretical supply gap that is set to emerge over the next decade. Given the long lead times required to bring on mines, some of this supply may be met by the higher use of scrap.