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Commodity Market Report 31 March 2022

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Report summary

Q1 for graphite has seen the continuation of a tight market as the environmental shutdowns seen in Luobei, China in late 2021 were carried through the whole of the first quarter. This coincided with rapid rates of electric vehicle (EV) uptake and battery demand, leading to average flake graphite price rises of 6% in March. Our long term view to 2050 offers a focus on the market balance of battery-grade flake which highlights a tighter market scenario than the total graphite market balance, particularly for medium size fractions. Graphite continues to be a vital material for the lithium-ion battery story and we have added deeper coverage of anode market developments and analysis of competition from alternative materials and technologies such as silicon and solid-state batteries. We have also provided a wider coverage of raw material flake and anode pricing.

Prices
Demand
Supply
Market balance
- Amorphous graphite
Base case price forecast
- 2021-2022
- Short-term prices (2023-2025)
- Medium-term prices (2025-2030)
- Long-term prices (2030-2050)
- Refined products
Key risks to the base case
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
Demand in batteries
Graphite anode material manufacturers
Silicon anode material manufacturers
- Li-ion batteries in automotive
- Recent trends in automotive and EVs
- Forecast for EVs
Demand in steel-based and other applications
Mine supply of natural graphite
- China
- Madagascar
- Tanzania
- Other Africa
- Brazil
- North America
- India
- Australia
- Europe
- Other
Refined supply of natural graphite
Manufacture of synthetic graphite
- China
- Japan
- US
- Europe
- India
- Other

Tables and charts

This report includes 33 images and tables including:

Nominal prices flake vs spherical
Real price flake vs spherical
Graphite demand and the changing end-use landscape

Synthetic graphite supply with % China
Natural graphite supply with % China and Africa
Natural graphite market balance (flake and amorphous)
Natural flake graphite market balance (battery-grade and other)
Battery market growth and associated graphite demand
Top Li-ion anode manufacturers, 2022
Graphite’s role as an active Li-ion anode material
Steel market trends and non-battery graphite growth
Electric arc furnace vs basic oxygen furnace steel production with growth led by China
Refractory production and graphite demand split
Key mine supply forecast data
Natural graphite supply by region
Ex-China downstream processing projects
Synthetic graphite supply by region
Natural flake graphite price forecast, 90% C, CIF Europe
Natural flake graphite price forecast, 94% C, CIF Europe
Natural flake graphite price forecast, 97%, CIF China
Natural flake graphite price forecast, 94% C, FOB China
Natural amorphous graphite price forecast, 80-85% C, CIF Europe
Battery-grade natural graphite price forecast, 99.95% C, China FOB
Key demand forecast data
Graphite demand by application
Role of the automotive sector in forecast lithium-ion battery growth
Plug-in EV sales by region
Automotive sales outlook by powertrain type
Lithium-ion battery automotive capacity by region
Africa: natural flake graphite production by country
Brazil: production of natural flake graphite vs domestic crude steel