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Commodity Market Report 19 June 2024

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Report summary

Through the first half of 2024, Chinese crude steel production has been 2% below the level of last year. We project only moderate growth for steel demand in 2024. The pockets of optimism from stimulus measures seem to be fading faster each time. Ambitions from China to cap this year’s production to a level similar to 2023 do not bode well for iron ore demand while supply appears ample, which will pressure prices. In the long term, China's demand for iron ore will shrink by 590 Mt (2024-2050). While additional supply from Simandou will contribute to an oversupplied market, pressuring prices lower, demand for direct charge ores and high-grade fines will increase, and quality differentials will widen to meet the needs of steel decarbonisation. This report presents our current assessment of iron ore market dynamics and our long term price outlook.