Global lead investment horizon outlook Q4 2022

While the repercussions of the war in Ukraine still reverberate, China’s sudden lifting of Xi’s zero-Covid policy has resulted in disorderly impact on lead markets. Surging Covid cases is already disrupting activity and the CCP’s ability to negotiate continued downside risks will be significant for lead’s short-term prospects. Of course, the situation in China could soon improve, just as the world is beginning to see reduced inflationary pressures. There are therefore upside risks to our forecast too. However, our latest forecasts for automotive output through to 2032 have been reined in and so we have slightly weaker growth in global consumption. However, we have not become more bearish because mine production capability has also reduced, and by more, particularly in the nearer term. This reinforces our expectation that the lead market’s future surpluses of concentrates and metal are not imminent and that TCs will remain contained and metal prices supported in the near term.