Global lead short-term outlook December 2022

Metal and concentrate pricing are ending 2022 at strong levels. Short-term macroeconomic prospects are certainly not entirely sanguine and without obvious downside risks, but recent developments - the roll-back of Covid restrictions in China and hopes that interest rates can turn following an easing of US inflation - are supportive of lead consumption growth accelerating in 2023. Mine production should also pick up in 2023, led by the start-up of the Abra project, and, so long as smelting does not emerge as a bottleneck. metal supply growth should match that of consumption. This should leave metal and concentrate stocks at the end of 2023 little changed, with notable surpluses only set to begin emerging in 2024.