Global lead short-term outlook December 2023

A weaker end to the year for lead prices after being the strongest base metal in 2023 is consistent with the refined market's modest surplus on the back of a strong secondary smelting sector. Despite real threats, demand has remained robust and it will likely be a supply shock - continued secondary strength or primary weakness - that will determine whether or not it is largely balanced in 2024 as forecast. Against further steady demand growth, mine production increases should ultimately increase refined, if not concentrate, stocks in 2025. While lead prices might then be falling, it will not obviously be the fault of lead use in ICEVs which should then be reaching a new high due to the importance of replacement demand.