Commodity Market Report

Global lead short-term outlook October 2019

26 October 2019

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26 October 2019

Global lead short-term outlook October 2019

Report summary

A robust price performance from lead was largely sustained by continuing supply concerns as the lead industry hits its peak demand season. A backwardation settled over the cash to three-month spread as the market cautiously eyed developments at Port Pirie and the increasingly negative LME-SHFE arbitrage stifling concentrate trade. The has forced Chinese smelters to force TCs much higher this month.

China
India
Russia
Europe
Raw materials market
Mine production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
Customs data suggest that all of Port Pirie's displaced local feed has been exported to China
The SHFE/LME arbitrage value in concentrate trade turned negative in October

Spot TCs would have to increase in October in order to maintain Chinese buyers' spot TC plus SHFE/LME arbitrage value
Seasonal shipments of Red Dog's concentrate became evident in China's imports in September
Concentrate market TCs
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Global lead mine production (Lead in Concentrate)
Global refined lead production (kt Pb)
Global primary and secondary refined lead production (kt Pb)
Lead stocks, prices and premia
Global lead supply and demand (kt)