Global lead short-term outlook October 2023

Penasquito's restart after a four-month strike returns up to 100kt/a Pb to lead markets, with the tight concentrate market likely resulting in refined metal supply recovering by the same amount. Confirmation of this restart coincided with lead prices weakening notably relative to other LME prices. Chinese refined exports and rising LME stocks continued to be bearish optics in October, although these developments can be partly attributable to a transfer of, rather than addition to, metal stocks. Although the lead price ended October 4% down, this does not mark it out from other LME metals, except for zinc which fell by 8%.