Commodity Market Report

Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q2 2024

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ICEV sales peaked six years ago but global consumption continues to set new highs and will rise by a CAGR of 0.8% in the period 2023-2034. OE SLIs in hybrids will offset the decline associated with ICEVs. The existing parc of ICE and hybrid vehicles requires replacement SLI batteries, government measures relaxing fuel economy standards delay the EV transition and add to the SLI parc. Nevertheless, lead use in SLIs for vehicles will peak this decade. Lead is still popular in the expanding market for auxiliary batteries in ICE and fully electric vehicles. Increasing 5G telecommunications and datacentre growth together with battery storage for renewables will add to leads future growth. Primary smelter output must rise by a CAGR of just 0.4% in the period 2023-2034, with secondary smelters meeting the balance. Mine production needs to lift by a CAGR of just 0.2% which will be met by developments such as the new Hermosa project.

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