Commodity Market Report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2019

10 April 2019

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What key questions does this report answer?

How long do we expect the nickel market to stay in deficit? How will this affect prices?
As electric vehicles grow in popularity, will there be enough nickel to meet demand for the high nickel battery chemicals EVs need?
What’s driving nickel demand in the short term?

10 April 2019

Global nickel long-term outlook Q1 2019

Report summary

The outlook for nickel remains one of long-term structural deficit and higher prices. World stainless melt production is expected to increase by around 16% by 2025, before slowing. However, there are risks to nickel uptake including falling austenitic ratios and rising scrap use in China. Also, penetration of the market by Indonesian stainless will force other producers to cut output. Longer term nickel demand is driven by the electric vehicle battery segment, not least because high-nickel battery chemistries will become increasingly dominant. But where is all the nickel going to come from? Do recently announced hydrometallurgical projects in Indonesia really provide the answer?

Nickel in stainless
- Africa
- Southeast Asia
- China
- Europe
- The Americas
Nickel in non-stainless
Principal Uses of Nickel
Africa
Asia
Oceania
Latin America

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

EV battery share of total nickel demand in 2018
EV battery share of total nickel demand in 2040
Global nickel consumption by first use

Global stainless steel product consumption by end use
Mined nickel production capability
Refined nickel production capability
Increasing feed requirements at Ambatovy, as grades fall
Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
Substantial deficit accumulating over the next ten years
Global nickel supply and demand - long-term structural shortage
Malaysian imports of stainless from South Africa replaced by Indonesia
Taiwan cuts stainless melt output as imports from Indonesia go up
Penetration of European stainless market by ex-region imports