Oil products price forecast update November 2022

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin rose in October to the highest monthly average since June. The monthly increase was led by a surge in middle distillate cracks, as Atlantic Basin supplies tightened significantly as refinery maintenance peaked. In Europe the tightness was exacerbated by the closure of over 70% of French refinery production due to industrial action. We expect the global composite margin to ease in November as global crude runs rebound sharply from the lows in October and the previously announced hike in Chinese oil product exports provides extra supply to the market in Asia.