Global rare earths short-term outlook December 2023

Continued poor purchasing activity from downstream magnet manufacturers and adequate supply resulted in price decreases for neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxide in December. Prices were between 4.6% and 6.7% down month-on-month. Terbium and dysprosium prices fared better due to tighter material availability, resulting in a 5.0% and 4.9% month-on-month price increase, respectively. We expect procurement activity to improve in Q1 2024, when activity typically picks up ahead of the spring festival closures in China. Global supply continues to develop in order to keep pace with rising demand from magnet applications. Production quotas for mining and separation production have been marginally increased in China, lifting the year-on-year growth to 21%. All additional mining quota was attributed to light rare earth production and China Northern and Chine Rare Earth Group were the main beneficiaries. Global refined supply is set to rise at a CAGR of 7.2% to 2027, reaching 284.5 kt REO.