Global rare earths short-term outlook February 2024

Uncertain economic condition in China is denting consumer confidence and spending, restricting rare earth demand. Downstream purchasing activity from metal, alloy and magnet manufacturers remains weak following the Spring Festival closures in China. Producers continue to operate from existing inventories to fulfill long term contractual agreements, encouraging suppliers to lower prices to help offload feedstock and reduce inventory pressure. Global supply continues to develop in order to keep pace with rising demand from magnet applications. Wood Mackenzie forecasts global mined supply will reach 376.3 kt REO in 2024, 11.6% higher than 2023. Growth will be driven by expansions at existing operations in China, which were boosted by a 12.5% increase to the production quota for H1 2024. Global refined supply is set to rise at a CAGR of 6.4% to 2028, reaching 304.9 kt REO. However, inflationary pressures and other developmental challenges could delay project development.