Global rare earths short-term outlook November 2023

A lack of sustained purchasing activity from downstream magnet manufacturers and adequate supply resulted in minor month-on-month price decreases for key rare earths in November. We expect procurement activity to improve towards the end of 2023 and into 2024, when order placements typically pick up ahead of the spring festival closures in China. The ROW pipeline of developing projects continues to expand as governments around the world look to improve supply chain security and keep pace with rising demand from magnet applications. Wood Mackenzie forecasts global mined supply will reach 337.7 kt REO in 2023, 9.3% higher than 2022. Future ROW mined supply has been boosted by the expansion plan at MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine in the US. This will help grow ROW supply at a CAGR of 11.2% in the period to 2027. We expect the neodymium market to remain in a small surplus until 2026, after which, rising demand will push the market into deficit.