Global rare earths short-term outlook October 2023

Improved purchasing activity from downstream magnet manufacturers helped to stabilise and lift magnet rare earth prices in October. We expect this dynamic to continue in Q4 2023 and into 2024, when procurement activity typically picks up ahead of the spring festival closures in China. Month-on-month price movements were between -1.8% and 2.9% for neodymium, praseodymium, terbium and dysprosium, though neodymium prices remain 37% down since the beginning of the year. The ROW pipeline of developing projects continues to expand as governments around the world look to improve supply chain security and keep pace with rising demand from magnet applications. Global refined supply is set to rise at a CAGR of 7.3% to 2027, reaching 289.0 kt REO. China currently accounts for 86% of global refined production, but ROW output has been boosted by the continuation of production at Lynas’ LAMP facility in Malaysia.