Commodity Market Report
Global Rare Earths Strategic Planning Outlook - Q1 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The use of rare earth permanent magnets in key energy transition technologies continues to support strong demand growth for key rare earth elements into 2022. The availability of feedstock material and refined products in the Chinese market has placed significant upward pressure on prices for in demand elements including neodymium, dysprosium and terbium. The influence of the Chinese government to the global rare earth market has been highlighted in Q1 2022, with major market consolidation, quota changes and pressure to lower pricing levels. The remainder of 2022 will be a pivotal stage in the future growth of the rare earth industry. Downstream consumers are cautious of price volatility, supply availability and the geographical concentration of the market. This is driving some to investigate substitution and thrifting of rare earths from their products, with potential to impact the longer term demand outlook.
Table of contents
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Pricing
- Prices reach new 10 year highs before reversal in price trend
- MIIT intervenes to bring rare earth pricing to lower levels
- Chinese quota increase sees limited price response from domestic industry
- Forecast prices for key magnet alloy elements remain supported by strong demand growth
- Heavy rare earth prices forecast to stabilise towards mid-2020s as supply availability improves
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Market balance
- Neodymium supply defines the rare earth market
- Rare earth elements to remain in significant oversupply
- Diverging trend between magnet and non-magnet materials
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Demand
- Permanent magnet applications will further increase their share of rare earth demand
- Growth in EV sales and production critical to rare earth demand growth
- Wind energy championed as alternative to Russian oil and gas
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Supply
- Mine supply to become increasingly diversified
- Alternative sources of rare earths: future growth opportunities
- Refined supply set to remain China-centred
- Secondary supply will grow in importance
- Lanthanum and cerium oxides
- Risks to the base case
- Neodymium, praseodymium, and Nd-Pr oxides
- Risks to the base case
- 12 more item(s)...
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Overview
- Changes since Q4 2021
- Magnet applications
- Catalyst applications
- Polishing powders
- Batteries
- Glass
- Metallurgical
- Minor applications
- 31 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Global rare earth demand by element (kt REO)
- Rare earth demand by region
- Demand distribution by element
- Demand distribution by end-use market
- Rare earth oxide price indexed (2022=1.00, Real US$2022)
- Rare earth oxide price forecast (Real, US$2022)
- China lanthanum and cerium oxide price outlook
- China neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxide price outlook
- China samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide price outlook
- China dysprosium and terbium oxide price outlook
- China lutetium and holmium oxide price outlook
- China ytterbium, yttrium and erbium oxide price outlook
- 27 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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