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Commodity Market Report

Global Rare Earths Strategic Planning Outlook - Q1 2022

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31 March 2022

Global Rare Earths Strategic Planning Outlook - Q1 2022

Report summary

The use of rare earth permanent magnets in key energy transition technologies continues to support strong demand growth for key rare earth elements into 2022. The availability of feedstock material and refined products in the Chinese market has placed significant upward pressure on prices for in demand elements including neodymium, dysprosium and terbium. The influence of the Chinese government to the global rare earth market has been highlighted in Q1 2022, with major market consolidation, quota changes and pressure to lower pricing levels. The remainder of 2022 will be a pivotal stage in the future growth of the rare earth industry. Downstream consumers are cautious of price volatility, supply availability and the geographical concentration of the market. This is driving some to investigate substitution and thrifting of rare earths from their products, with potential to impact the longer term demand outlook.

Table of contents

    • Prices reach new 10 year highs before reversal in price trend
    • MIIT intervenes to bring rare earth pricing to lower levels
    • Chinese quota increase sees limited price response from domestic industry
    • Forecast prices for key magnet alloy elements remain supported by strong demand growth
    • Heavy rare earth prices forecast to stabilise towards mid-2020s as supply availability improves
    • Neodymium supply defines the rare earth market
    • Rare earth elements to remain in significant oversupply
    • Diverging trend between magnet and non-magnet materials
    • Permanent magnet applications will further increase their share of rare earth demand
    • Growth in EV sales and production critical to rare earth demand growth
    • Wind energy championed as alternative to Russian oil and gas
    • Mine supply to become increasingly diversified
    • Alternative sources of rare earths: future growth opportunities
    • Refined supply set to remain China-centred
    • Secondary supply will grow in importance
    • Lanthanum and cerium oxides
    • Risks to the base case
    • Neodymium, praseodymium, and Nd-Pr oxides
    • Risks to the base case
    • Samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide
    • Risks to the base case
    • Dysprosium and terbium
    • Risks to the base case
    • Other heavy rare earths
    • Neodymium
    • Praseodymium
    • Dysprosium
    • Terbium
    • Lanthanum and cerium
    • Samarium, europium, gadolinium (SEG)
    • Other heavy rare earths
    • Changes since Q4 2021
    • Magnet applications
    • Catalyst applications
    • Polishing powders
    • Batteries
    • Glass
    • Metallurgical
    • Minor applications
    • Mine supply
    • Mine production capability
    • Alternative sources of rare earths
    • Monazite mineral sands
    • Apatite
    • Other phosphates
    • Regional supply trends
    • China
    • North America
    • Asia Pacific (ex-China)
    • Europe
    • Africa and Middle East
    • Latin America
    • Refined supply
    • Refined production capability
    • Regional supply trends
    • China
    • North America
    • Asia Pacific (ex-China)
    • Europe
    • Africa and Middle East
    • Latin America
    • Recycled supply
    • Recycling production capability
    • Regional supply trends
    • China
    • North America
    • Asia Pacific (ex-China)
    • Europe
    • Africa and Middle East
    • Latin America

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

  • Global rare earth demand by element (kt REO)
  • Rare earth demand by region
  • Demand distribution by element
  • Demand distribution by end-use market
  • Rare earth oxide price indexed (2022=1.00, Real US$2022)
  • Rare earth oxide price forecast (Real, US$2022)
  • China lanthanum and cerium oxide price outlook
  • China neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxide price outlook
  • China samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide price outlook
  • China dysprosium and terbium oxide price outlook
  • China lutetium and holmium oxide price outlook
  • China ytterbium, yttrium and erbium oxide price outlook
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2022-2050
  • Global supply-demand balance for neodymium oxide, 2022-2050
  • Global supply-demand balance for praseodymium, 2022-2050
  • Dysprosium supply from refined and recycled sources, 2015-2050
  • Supply-demand balance for dysprosium oxide, 2022-2050
  • Supply-demand balance for terbium oxide, 2022-2050
  • Changes in rare earth demand forecast since Q4 2021 by end-use
  • NdFeB and Sm-Co magnet demand
  • NdFeB demand in automotive and transport
  • NdFeB magnet demand by end use
  • Wind energy generation and generator type
  • NdFeB demand in Computing, electronics, and audio
  • Demand by major element
  • Demand by minor element
  • Regional demand in magnet applications
  • Global automotive sales outlook, 2022-2050 (million units)
  • Regional demand in auto-catalysts
  • Demand in catalyst applications
  • Polishing powder demand
  • Demand by glass application
  • NiMH alloy demand and rare earth consumption
  • Rare earth demand from minor applications (t REO)
  • Global mined supply, 2022-2050 (kt REO)
  • Outlook for rare earth production from monazite mineral sands, 2020-2030
  • Outlook for global refined rare earths, 2022-2050 (kt REO)
  • Rare earth refined supply by element (kt REO)
  • Outlook for rare earths supply from recycled sources, 2022-2050 (kt REO)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Rare Earths Strategic Planning Outlook - Q1 2022

    PDF 1.19 MB