Global steel 10-year investment horizon outlook - Q4 2022

The global steel industry will continue to face a triple whammy of dwindling consumer spending amid rising inflation, supply chain disruptions due to the Russia/Ukraine war and feeble government spending. Demand in China, EU and CIS will falter, whereas India, US and Indonesia will see robust demand growth. There is more pain in the offing in 2023 as recovery will be slow and contingent on policy interventions in case of COVID lockdowns in China and resolving the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We are less convinced of a broad-based revival with heightened risks of recession in EU and CIS overshadowing the global growth prospects. China will post modest growth in 2023 as the property sector drags amid easing COVID restrictions, frontloading of infrastructure investments and rising auto output. In the long term, China will be a major growth deterrent. On the flip side, India and Southeast Asia will witness a robust demand outlook, primarily led by infrastructure and housing construction.