Global steel investment horizon outlook – Q3 2024

Steel demand has been waning through 2024 – China’s prolonged property slump, coupled with its supply glut, has disrupted global trade balances and prices. The West remains affected by poor demand conditions amid high inflation, interest rates and geopolitical tensions. Recovery has been postponed to 2025. But India and Southeast Asia remain bright spots – offsetting demand loss from China and the West. On the supply side, steel output in China will be wiped out by 150Mt over the next decade. However, India and Southeast Asia will witness substantial capacity expansions mainly via the BF-BOF route. But at a global level, nearly half of the steelmaking capacity under development is EAF, setting the base for our forecast of EAF share increasing from the current 28% to 39% by 2034. In the coming decade, hot metal consumption will be partially replaced by scrap and DRI led by decarbonisation efforts. Please refer to our latest investment horizon outlook for more details.