Global steel long-term outlook Q1 2017 Report

Commodity Market Report 04 April 2017

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

In 2017 the steel industry hit the ground running, with demand, production and prices on the up in China, Europe and the USA. Overall we expect this to be a year of recovery. Global finished steel demand is expected to grow 2.2%, to 1.52 billion tonnes. Brazil and Russia are past the worst, manufacturing remains strong in Europe, the stock cycle will be expansionary in the USA and China, and higher oil prices will lift steel demand in oil-dependent economies, most notably in the Middle East.An important 2017 development is the expected rise of global utilisation rates after a four-year decline. China will cut another 50 Mtpa of capacity in 2017. At the same time, protectionist measures will undermine export opportunities for Chinese steelmakers. This should allow steelmakers in most regions to increase output and utilisation rates. Crude steel production is expected to expand by 1.6% globally and by 3% ex-China.

Why buy this report?

The global steel industry is showing signs of recovery with growing demand for finished steel, and crude steel production expected to increase in 2017. Our report will help you to:

Identify the primary drivers influencing trade and price dynamics using our deep market knowledge and forecasts of market fundamentals
Guide your corporate strategy using our comprehensive research of steel supply and demand dynamics
Form a long term view of steel market trends and contrast with your own models

Our report provides a detailed view of the supply and demand side drivers for the steel market globally for the next 20 years. It includes:

Key forecast data for China, covering production, consumption and capacity
Visual analysis of demand drivers by country and region, with a focus on China
Data on global production trends, as well as export and import patterns

China
- Summary
- Demand
- Property construction: 2016 non-res weakness will have lasting consequences
- Government will continue to stimulate growth in infrastructure
- Manufacturing: government stimulus will support medium-term growth
- Production and exports
- Unreported steel production excluded from our crude steel production
- Production undermined by weak demand in the medium term
- 7 more item(s)...
Japan
- Demand in the construction sector will recover in 2017
- Manufacturing demand will be undermined by contracting automotive production in the medium term
South Korea
Taiwan
India
- India: still not there
- The construction sector: stubbornly low expectations
- Crude steel production growth set for a slowdown
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
Europe
- Construction
- Automotive
- All other sectors
- Production
- Prices
Turkey
- Construction
- Automotive and machinery
- Household appliances
- Trade
- Production
9 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Demand in Vietnam has been revised up significantly
Production will increase, and force steel imports to decline in the medium term
Key China forecast data

Demand revision in Q1 2017 update
The government will continue to stimulate demand in the infrastructure sector in the medium term
however, the property sector will keep declining
Steel demand in manufacturing was revised up in the medium term
Demand in automotive will increase the fastest among all major steel-consuming sectors
Exports will recover in the long term
A weaker demand outlook caused a revision to our long-term production forecast
The '2+26 policy' will impact steel production during China’s heating season (mid-November to mid-March)
Capacity cuts will cause utilisation rates to rise in the medium term
32 more item(s)...