We forecast an 8% year-on-year fall for global steel demand this year. For the world excluding China, it is a 16% fall. It is a drastic forecast, but risk lean heavily to the downside. If the economic recovery in the world ex-China doesn't start now, global steel demand must sink further. Production has responded quickly to demand declines – a recovery will take two to three years. By then, Chinese output will be in decline and so global steel supply will plateau. Hot-metal production will take decades to recover as 2020 accelerates the shift towards greener steelmaking technologies in key regions. Despite the bleak demand outlook, prices have limited scope for further falls.