Global steel markets short-term outlook April 2024

In Q1 2024, Indian crude steel production grew 10% year-on-year, but global crude steel production grew a meagre 0.5%, dragged down by falling production levels in mature markets and China. World ex-China production rose by 3.5% year-on-year during the same period. The suspension of infrastructure projects in China and continued weakness in the property sector have weighed on demand. Construction sectors in mature markets continue to suffer, as tight monetary policies have led to high material costs and labour shortages. We forecast a demand recovery from Q3 in western regions, driven by seasonal upticks and an improving economic environment, particularly in the US. Indian steel demand is forecast to remain healthy throughout 2024, albeit lower than 2023 due to the higher base. Upcoming Indian elections in Q2 and the monsoon season in Q3, pose downside risks.