Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook December 2019

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16 December 2019

Global steel short-term outlook December 2019

Report summary

Will steel continue to be governed by governments in 2020? The Chinese governments scrap and coking coal import policy has lead to higher domestic raw materials prices and steelmaking costs. With margins squeezed, Indian exporters have taken advantage. Indian finished steel exports grew 64% quarter-on-quarter. And the Indian governments Steel Import Monitoring System should support Indian steelmakers. No government policy has been more dynamic than the US this year. The latest tweet is of a 25% tariff to be imposed on imports of steel products from Argentina and Brazil. With Brazilian production highly leveraged to export markets such a policy will only compound the woes of Brazilian steelmakers – Brazilian output will fall 9% this year. EU steelmakers are having a torrid time with crude steel output down 3.6% year-to-October. Can the EC's "Green Deal" come to the rescue? And if so, when?

Table of contents

    • Exports down as China self-imposes higher scrap and coking coal prices
    • The outlook – can production exceed 1 billion tonnes?
    • Indian steel production supported by rising exports and government import policy
    • 2020: the third consecutive year of EU28 production declines...?
    • Can the EC's "Green Deal" come to the rescue?
    • Imports: tariffs are not the major controlling factor
    • USMCA agreement: what is in there for steel?
    • Steel production is highly leveraged to both domestic and foreign government policy
  • Iron ore
  • Metallurgical coal
  • Scrap and metallics

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Global crude-steel production
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers index in key regions
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • Chinese crude steel production, monthly and annualised
  • Chinese finished steel trade
  • EU steel imports and selected sources
  • Eurozone construction PMIs
  • Indian net-imports, crude steel production and demand growth
  • Indian crude steel production and growth
  • USA crude steel production and capacity utilisation
  • US imports
  • We think Chinese crude steel production will peak in 2020, with modest growth in demand and downward pressure in exports
  • Chinese finished steel exports are losing competitiveness against foreign steel due to sluggish foreign demand and rising raw materials costs
  • Postcard from Shanghai...
  • Indian steel exports
  • We will update our outlook later this month and 2020 will be the third consecutive year of EU28 crude steel production declines.
  • A 25%-tariff scenario sees US production competing with Brazilian imports
  • A non-tariff scenario sees Brazilian imports lower cost than US domestic production, encouraging imports
  • Brazilian crude steel production will contract this year...
  • ...production will not exceed 2013 volumes (the year in which demand peaked) until 2021
  • Quarterly and annual steel prices
  • Quarterly and annual metallics prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data December 2019.xls

    XLS 298.00 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook December 2019

    ZIP 1.21 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook December 2019

    ZIP 1.22 MB

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